Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1ea…ed94 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%18W / 48L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$13
other 14% +$2
politics 13% −$4
sports 2% +$94
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +5.2% -4.8% 16% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 52 +9.1% -1.3% 27% 19% -7.6%
all 66 +6.8% -3.4% 27% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 15% -9.2%
10% -12.6% 15% -17.9%
15% -21.1% 11% -25.8%
20% -28.8% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses18 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage609d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $171 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $14 +$14 +101%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $173 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $145 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $157 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $148 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $47 +$2 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$13 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $14 +$7 +49%
Blues vs. Kings Apr 02 $13 +$10 +75%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 30 $24 +$6 +27%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $20 +$29 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $5 5h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 26h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 28h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 43h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 45h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $101 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $14 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.16 · official $105.16 (match) · 270 history records