Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1e5…c5df sports 896 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,169 (-8%) realized −$1,126 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%415W / 466L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$595
14 days+$606
30 days+$793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$316
other 36% +$329
weather 13% −$201
world 7% +$238
politics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$79
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +15.2% +4.2% 74% 46% -1.2%
≤30d 72 +12.0% +1.3% 64% 44% +0.3%
≤90d 881 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 38% -8.6%
all 881 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 38% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 33% -17.3%
15% -32.1% 29% -25.3%
20% -38.7% 25% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$1,126
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses415 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions23
Markets (closed)881 / 896
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+45%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 74¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 86¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 34¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 86¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-70%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $250 +$10 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $504 +$109 +22%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $4 +$4 +95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $601 +$42 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $502 +$8 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $503 +$97 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $20 −$18 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$15 -38%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $43 −$12 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $64 +$82 +128%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $23 +$8 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 +$82 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $601 −$9 -2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $601 +$25 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $502 +$54 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 +$21 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 +$21 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$36 +179%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 +$15 +72%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $25 +$6 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$30 +76%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $90 +$101 +113%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $43 −$13 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$54 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $260 25m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $319 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $232 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $62 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 96¢ $240 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY United States 96¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $20 2h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 11h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $21 11h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.14 · official $467.14 (match) · 3500 history records