Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc1e2…b3b5
crypto · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$37 -44%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage72d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation? No 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? No 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 04 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$8 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$7 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the N Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$14
politics 36% −$21
other 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 38d
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -52.5%
≤30d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -52.5%
≤90d 20 -23.7% -31.0% 25% 25% -47.6%
all 20 -23.7% -31.0% 25% 25% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 25% -47.6%
10% -37.6% 25% -52.6%
15% -43.6% 20% -57.2%
20% -49.1% 20% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.65 · official $5.65 (match) · 46 history records