Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc1e0…206d other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$8,241 (+45%) realized +$9,035 · open −$794
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +365% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +304% what you keep after slip
Net edge+304%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,538per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,883
7 days+$9,092
14 days+$7,904
30 days+$7,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$9,965
other 45% +$17,276
world 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+320.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +478.7% +423.6% 57% 57% +46.8%
≤30d 9 +364.7% +320.4% 44% 44% +30.9%
≤90d 9 +364.7% +320.4% 44% 44% +30.9%
all 9 +364.7% +320.4% 44% 44% +30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +320.4% 44% +30.9%
10% +280.2% 44% +18.4%
15% +243.5% 44% +6.9%
20% +209.8% 44% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +365% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,939 vs −$2,371 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$9,035
Unrealized−$794
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,538
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Yes 14¢ 24¢ $250 $437 +$188 (+75%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $500 $17 −$483 (-97%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $500 $2 −$498 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $514 +$5,042 +982%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $513 +$3,059 +596%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 24 $9,965 −$9,965 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $497 +$10,175 +2048%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,951 −$1,028 -53%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $993 −$161 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $256 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,026 22h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $514 23h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 47h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 38¢ $9,965 4d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $497 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $924 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $958 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $994 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $832 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $993 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.25 · official $456.25 (match) · 28 history records