Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1df…245e sports 881 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,083 (+2%) realized +$1,087 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%462W / 417L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$548est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days−$124
30 days−$929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +76.0% +59.3% 100% 100% +59.3%
≤30d 140 -5.6% -14.6% 46% 45% -14.5%
≤90d 511 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 48% -10.4%
all 879 -4.5% -13.6% 53% 51% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 51% -9.2%
10% -21.9% 45% -17.9%
15% -29.4% 39% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 33% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$42 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$1,087
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses462 / 417
Est. fees paid−$548
Open positions2
Markets (closed)879 / 881
History coverage197d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ 100¢ $52 $74 +$22 (+42%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 366 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$11 +76%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $88 −$86 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $105 −$104 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$55 +112%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $29 +$21 +70%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $41 −$41 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $33 +$8 +23%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$20 +155%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $88 −$87 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $197 −$194 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $43 −$42 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $234 +$209 +90%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $37 +$9 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $44 −$10 -23%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$25 +123%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$34 +68%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$18 +35%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $32 +$46 +146%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $41 +$40 +98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $29 +$33 +112%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $25 +$74 +290%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $76 +$50 +66%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $49 +$27 +54%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $30 −$10 -34%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$1 -11%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $254 −$11 -4%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $54 +$81 +149%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $88 +$85 +97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $29 +$31 +105%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $53 +$61 +115%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $29 −$6 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $52 28m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $52 29m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $39 37m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 47¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $15 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $11 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 28¢ $11 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 39¢ $88 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 72¢ $105 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $105 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 46¢ $50 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $50 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 58¢ $29 13d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY FURIA Esports 64¢ $41 14d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $41 14d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 80¢ $33 14d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL FURIA Esports 95¢ $33 14d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY FURIA Esports 36¢ $13 14d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 50¢ $44 14d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 47¢ $45 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 38¢ $197 14d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 35¢ $102 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 32¢ $43 15d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 46¢ $102 15d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL Deep Cross Gaming 87¢ $444 15d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 45¢ $234 15d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 69¢ $14 15d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY CCG Esports 30¢ $30 15d
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY CCG Esports 30¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.68 · official $73.68 (match) · 1604 history records