Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc1d9…5333 crypto 689 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,225 (-3%) realized −$4,272 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%437W / 344L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day132.0pace
Fees−$1,779est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$655
crypto 13% −$3,047
other 4% −$891
world 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -27.7% -34.6% 40% 37% -2.6%
≤30d 781 -10.1% -18.6% 56% 50% -11.0%
≤90d 781 -10.1% -18.6% 56% 50% -11.0%
all 781 -10.1% -18.6% 56% 50% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 50% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 38% -19.6%
15% -33.5% 28% -27.3%
20% -40.0% 21% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$156 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,708
Realized−$4,272
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses437 / 344
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,779
Open positions2
Markets (closed)781 / 689
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day132.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 92¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,623 +$123 (+8%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ 100¢ $37 $85 +$47 (+127%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 61¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$27 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$112 -50169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$24 -164%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$101 -222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$122 -4213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$189 -62962%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$121 -107%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$41 -61633%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$34 -45418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$497 -168142%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$223 -513%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$251 -965%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 90¢ $210 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 90¢ $90 34m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 92¢ $533 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 92¢ $67 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 94¢ $601 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 18¢ $168 38m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $607 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $111 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $6 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $7 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $5 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $27 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $87 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $5 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 58¢ $150 43m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 67¢ $296 52m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $37 53m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $162 53m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $3 53m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $42 53m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $54 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 74¢ $513 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $0 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $128 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 44¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,708.16 · official $1,708.16 (match) · 3500 history records