Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1d7…1595 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,236 (-35%) realized −$1,236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$4
14 days−$121
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$852
sports 30% −$294
other 3% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -11.6%
≤30d 13 -15.0% -23.1% 46% 46% -44.5%
≤90d 33 -47.7% -52.6% 30% 30% -78.1%
all 53 -18.2% -26.0% 51% 42% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 42% -41.9%
10% -33.1% 40% -47.5%
15% -39.6% 36% -52.5%
20% -45.5% 26% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$71 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage139d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$19 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $34 −$27 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$19 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $29 +$52 +183%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $120 −$118 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $22 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$7 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $60 −$59 -97%
Spread: Clippers (-4.5) May 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs May 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? May 03 $115 −$105 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 May 03 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 03 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 03 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season May 03 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 03 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 03 $21 +$12 +60%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 09 $12 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 09 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 17 $55 +$42 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 15 $117 −$57 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 15 $56 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 14 $88 +$66 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 14 $82 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 14 $40 +$42 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 13 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 13 $64 +$57 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 03 $70 +$66 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 03 $67 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $43 +$23 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $454 −$388 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 44h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 10¢ $7 44h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $34 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $16 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $81 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 34¢ $29 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $120 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $29 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 15d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 15d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records