Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc1d1…67ec crypto 905 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-1%) realized −$130 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%595W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$103
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$357
sports 8% +$179
tech 2% −$11
economics 2% −$2
other 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -17.8% -25.7% 75% 0% -20.1%
≤30d 60 -17.8% -25.7% 75% 0% -20.1%
≤90d 205 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 21% -10.6%
all 904 -2.2% -11.5% 66% 41% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 41% -11.1%
10% -20.0% 28% -19.6%
15% -27.7% 22% -27.4%
20% -34.8% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses595 / 309
Open positions1
Markets (closed)904 / 905
History coverage452d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Down 87¢ 100¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $27 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.18 · official $33.18 (match) · 2725 history records