Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C1 0xc1d1…c4b9 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$164 (-8%) realized −$177 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$390
14 days+$390
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$338
crypto 36% −$246
sports 17% +$88
world 10% +$106
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 35% +27.5%
≤30d 31 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 35% +27.5%
≤90d 31 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 35% +27.5%
all 33 +15.0% +4.1% 36% 36% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 36% +5.5%
10% -5.9% 33% -4.6%
15% -15.0% 30% -13.8%
20% -23.3% 27% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$15 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 48
History coverage239d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 39¢ 43¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 74¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 71¢ 67¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 57¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $21 −$12 -59%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$241 +236%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$20 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$18 +59%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi Jun 22 $151 −$8 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- Jun 22 $212 +$106 +50%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $30 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$60 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 10 $500 −$169 -34%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $200 +$53 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 39¢ $104 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 19¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 64¢ $49 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $31 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 26¢ $31 13h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 59¢ $10 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 36¢ $20 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic BUY 32¢ $20 30h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $21 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 50¢ $30 30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 66¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? SELL No 26¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? BUY No 58¢ $21 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 42¢ $20 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $20 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $102 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi SELL 71¢ $143 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 57¢ $10 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 62¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Wi BUY 74¢ $151 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.87 · official $242.87 · 84 history records