Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1d0…529c crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,560 (-40%) realized −$1,501 · open −$2,059
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%68W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$58
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2,465
crypto 22% +$147
sports 9% +$129
other 5% −$178
politics 3% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.6% +3.7% 83% 83% +20.3%
≤30d 19 -18.7% -26.4% 58% 58% +0.5%
≤90d 25 -27.9% -34.8% 48% 48% -45.3%
all 130 -11.6% -20.0% 52% 48% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 48% -21.1%
10% -27.7% 39% -28.6%
15% -34.6% 30% -35.5%
20% -41.1% 18% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized−$1,501
Unrealized−$2,059
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses68 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 134
History coverage132d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $2,622 $684 −$1,939 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $128 $6 −$122 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $55 +$9 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $24 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$29 +28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 22 $323 −$174 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? Apr 01 $167 −$155 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 07 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$4 -43%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 03 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 03 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 03 $5 $0 +1%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 03 $127 +$28 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 03 $94 +$34 +36%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $300 −$204 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 28 $110 −$97 -88%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 22 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 39¢ $64 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $55 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL 98¢ $66 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 66¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $46 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $24 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $23 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.63 · official $725.64 (match) · 457 history records