Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc1d0…4b71
other · 118 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$1,146 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,063 · open +$93
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,072
Realized+$1,063
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses36 / 71
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)107 / 118
History coverage155d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 11 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$888
14 days+$786
30 days+$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $410 $615 +$205 (+50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $296 $284 −$12 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $310 $271 −$39 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $246 $236 −$10 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $250 $224 −$26 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $167 $164 −$3 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-03? No 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? No 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-24? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-01? No 51¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-20? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? No 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $176 +$911 +518%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $6 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $72 −$46 -64%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $21 −$13 -64%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $27 −$10 -39%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti May 25 $26 −$2 -9%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French president May 24 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele May 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 19 $51 −$14 -28%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 19 $51 −$14 -27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $8 −$2 -27%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $21 −$2 -12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pre May 10 $30 −$16 -52%
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French pr May 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Apr 26 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $70 +$41 +59%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $100 +$76 +76%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 02 $120 −$4 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 02 $20 −$2 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $15 −$1 -8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 01 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 01 $25 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 28 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Mar 25 $49 +$90 +184%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Mar 22 $5 +$51 +1016%
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 202 Mar 22 $45 +$235 +522%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 19 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 16 $39 +$105 +273%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% +$775
politics 11% +$390
sports 9% +$68
world 7% −$75
crypto 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $98 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $48 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $48 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,087 5d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 30¢ $31 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 9d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 10d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +106.0% +86.4% 33% 33% +394.5%
≤30d 18 -21.9% -29.3% 17% 11% +110.2%
≤90d 52 +21.6% +10.0% 33% 23% +59.2%
all 107 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 25% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 25% +32.5%
10% -16.6% 21% +19.8%
15% -24.7% 17% +8.2%
20% -32.0% 16% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,072.16 · official $2,072.16 (match) · 349 history records