Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1c9…1d47 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-20%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%99W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$52
weather 9% −$19
other 3% −$9
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 228 -26.9% -33.8% 43% 40% -29.6%
all 228 -26.9% -33.8% 43% 40% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 40% -29.6%
10% -40.2% 37% -36.3%
15% -45.9% 33% -42.5%
20% -51.2% 21% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses99 / 129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage83d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $11 −$5 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will "Disease" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY No 2¢ $2 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.84 · official $3.84 (match) · 491 history records