Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1c9…6872 finance 365 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,371 (+2%) realized +$8,841 · open −$1,470
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%204W / 159L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$568
7 days+$602
14 days+$902
30 days+$2,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,779
finance 31% +$4,579
world 23% +$1,224
weather 1% −$310
crypto 1% +$23
politics 1% +$66
sports 0% +$50
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 15% -5.9%
≤30d 88 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 20% -6.5%
≤90d 363 -1.4% -10.7% 56% 28% -6.8%
all 363 -1.4% -10.7% 56% 28% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 28% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 18% -15.8%
15% -27.1% 13% -23.9%
20% -34.2% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$4,865
Realized+$8,841
Unrealized−$1,470
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses204 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)363 / 365
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$871
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 50¢ 93¢ $2,000 $3,722 +$1,722 (+86%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 55¢ 78¢ $613 $865 +$252 (+41%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 7¢ $2,000 $278 −$1,722 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $69 +$30 +44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,334 +$462 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $263 −$149 -56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $618 +$222 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $162 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $742 +$15 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4,427 +$323 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $224 +$16 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $183 +$7 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $395 −$27 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $783 +$87 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $568 −$51 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $634 +$39 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4,166 −$370 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,199 +$177 +15%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 09 $81 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $241 +$22 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $114 +$16 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$16 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3,357 −$448 -13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$5 -19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,048 +$162 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2,848 +$369 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $175 −$17 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $3,785 +$364 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 02 $49 −$45 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $180 −$15 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $880 −$13 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $511 +$40 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,359 +$41 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $97 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 1? May 31 $95 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $73 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 77¢ $4 9m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $506 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $114 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $793 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 26¢ $115 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $67 17h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $196 17h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $10 18h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 92¢ $82 19h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 90¢ $5 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 69¢ $112 21h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 64¢ $3 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 64¢ $441 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 61¢ $659 22h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 65¢ $258 23h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 49¢ $250 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 49¢ $250 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $6 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 48¢ $245 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,864.68 · official $4,864.68 (match) · 3500 history records