Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1c8…6e5c sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,170 (+4%) realized +$2,173 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$875per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$555
14 days+$555
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$642
other 12% +$527
crypto 1% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 45% -0.7%
≤30d 32 -14.2% -22.4% 47% 44% -4.3%
≤90d 33 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 45% +0.9%
all 54 -12.1% -20.5% 56% 46% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 46% -7.8%
10% -28.1% 33% -16.6%
15% -35.0% 22% -24.7%
20% -41.4% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,177) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$295 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2,173
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage245d
Avg bet$875
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 78¢ 72¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$30 -50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$137 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $56 −$28 -49%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$145 +29%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$41 -81%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $503 −$176 -35%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 −$32 -88%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $201 +$34 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $201 +$65 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $705 +$203 +29%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $362 +$24 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$5 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 −$116 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$66 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $403 +$145 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$12 -23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $457 +$521 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$58 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$52 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $198 +$34 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $224 −$215 -96%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $1,000 +$456 +46%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $800 −$486 -61%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,500 +$335 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3,290 +$706 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $3,730 +$2,188 +59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $5,154 +$546 +11%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $4,060 +$104 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $2,540 +$796 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 28 $1,269 −$1,269 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $1,500 −$1,422 -95%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $870 +$425 +49%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $4,167 +$354 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $3,485 −$92 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Oct 21 $50 +$9 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $100 +$52 +52%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $2,200 +$65 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $1,811 +$202 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 7m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 13m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 27¢ $0 13m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 27¢ $30 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 15m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $640 15m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $28 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $649 12h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria $1 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $10 12h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $20 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $327 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over $4 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $503 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $36 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $201 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $201 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $908 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $385 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.50 · official $42.66 · 170 history records