Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1c7…5776 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$162
crypto 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -49.4%
≤30d 5 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -49.4%
≤90d 5 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -49.4%
all 5 -22.1% -29.5% 40% 40% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 40% -49.4%
10% -36.2% 20% -54.3%
15% -42.4% 20% -58.7%
20% -48.0% 20% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$58 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $201 −$157 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$18 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $120 +$13 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $44 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $179 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 47¢ $1 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 56¢ $1 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $120 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records