trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -21.0% | -28.5% | 60% | 50% | -5.3% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -26.0% | -33.0% | 56% | 33% | -20.2% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 59% | 36% | -21.7% |
| all | 22 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 59% | 36% | -21.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 36% | -21.7% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 23% | -29.2% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 14% | -36.0% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 5% | -42.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 89¢ | 90¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $65 | $64 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 10¢ | $69 | $10 | −$59 (-86%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $71 | +$28 | +40% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$46 | +46% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $10 | +$2 | +24% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 16 | $164 | +$36 | +22% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 16 | $430 | +$32 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $154 | −$94 | -61% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 12 | $1,960 | +$241 | +12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 07 | $454 | +$106 | +23% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | May 29 | $497 | −$497 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | May 25 | $746 | +$45 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | May 25 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | May 25 | $505 | +$20 | +4% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 24 | $1,200 | +$45 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 23 | $600 | −$304 | -51% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $1,153 | −$507 | -44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | May 15 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET | May 15 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | May 15 | $13 | +$7 | +50% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | May 15 | $171 | −$171 | -100% |