Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1c5…81e9 other 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
politics 20% −$5
sports 8% +$9
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.7% -4.4% 20% 20% -5.4%
≤30d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 19% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 102 +1.3% -8.4% 14% 10% -9.5%
all 104 +1.3% -8.4% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 10% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 9% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage92d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $214 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $530 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $386 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $370 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $388 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $352 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $363 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $364 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $336 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 11m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 20h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 29h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $123 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.97 · official $191.97 (match) · 314 history records