Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1bf…6afc other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$11
other 31% −$1
politics 10% +$1
tech 8% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% +$5
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 17% -1.8%
≤30d 6 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 17% -1.8%
≤90d 13 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 8% -6.7%
all 49 -1.0% -10.4% 49% 4% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -7.9%
10% -19.0% 4% -16.7%
15% -26.8% 2% -24.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $41 +$12 +31%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $25 +$2 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $19 $0 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $16 −$2 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $14 −$1 -4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $57 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $27 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $26 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $41 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $8 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $19 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $25 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $43 31d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records