Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1be…6471 sports 1090 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,528 (-5%) realized −$5,532 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%543W / 571L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$1,061est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$5,303
crypto 13% −$397
other 10% −$1,225
world 2% +$51
politics 1% +$10
weather 0% −$134
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -62.5% -66.1% 17% 15% -65.1%
≤30d 239 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 36% -22.2%
≤90d 1114 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 40% -16.9%
all 1114 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 40% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 40% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 35% -24.9%
15% -32.9% 29% -32.1%
20% -39.5% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$48 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$5,532
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses543 / 571
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,061
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1114 / 1090
History coverage70d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner OG 62¢ 66¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$19 +194%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs WW Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 22 $40 −$41 -101%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 22 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play Jun 22 $64 −$68 -107%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $51 +$34 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +89%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $56 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$32 -63%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$28 -54%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $51 −$24 -47%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$26 -52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$37 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $663 −$654 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 62¢ $50 53m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 45¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 61¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 52¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 75¢ $49 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 74¢ $15 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $51 4h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $192 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 46¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 48¢ $56 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $85 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $51 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 60¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 46¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 40¢ $51 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 19¢ $23 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 5d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 31¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 48¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $91 6d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 31¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.15 · official $73.15 (match) · 3000 history records