Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc1be…0921 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$391 (+91%) realized +$393 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$78
14 days+$374
30 days+$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$428
crypto 41% −$45
weather 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.9% +20.2% 62% 50% +104.8%
≤30d 23 +28.5% +16.3% 48% 39% +155.7%
≤90d 51 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 33% +91.5%
all 51 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 33% +91.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 33% +91.5%
10% -26.8% 27% +73.2%
15% -33.9% 25% +56.4%
20% -40.4% 16% +41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +112% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$3 · ×7.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$393
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage44d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 43¢ 42¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $36 +$72 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $38 +$270 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 +$56 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$43 +197%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $69 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 33¢ $36 32h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $307 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $38 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $105 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $49 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.63 · official $65.63 (match) · 102 history records