Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

C1 0xc1be…2f35 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$27 (-11%) realized −$27 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 266d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+7.5%	-2.7%	100%	0%	-2.7%
≤30d	1	+7.5%	-2.7%	100%	0%	-2.7%
≤90d	1	+7.5%	-2.7%	100%	0%	-2.7%
all	2	-46.2%	-51.4%	50%	0%	-36.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.4%	0%	-36.8%
10%	-56.0%	0%	-42.9%
15%	-60.3%	0%	-48.4%
20%	-64.2%	0%	-53.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.14 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized−$27

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage266d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$40	$40	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$50	+$4	+8%
US government shutdown by October 1?	Sep 30	$27	−$27	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	47¢	$20	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$40	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	93¢	$50	2h
US government shutdown by October 1?	BUY No	22¢	$27	266d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.85 · official $223.85 · 6 history records