Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1be…3772 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,237 (+27%) realized +$11,237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%20W / 81L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$665
7 days−$899
14 days−$899
30 days−$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$12,688
economics 6% −$1,742
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -56.9% -61.0% 0% 0% -52.6%
≤30d 3 -56.9% -61.0% 0% 0% -52.6%
≤90d 76 +42.9% +29.3% 18% 18% -48.8%
all 101 +37.2% +24.1% 20% 18% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.1% 18% +15.1%
10% +12.3% 17% +4.1%
15% +1.4% 17% -6.0%
20% -8.5% 17% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +101% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,370 vs −$203 · ×6.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses20 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage215d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $329 −$288 -88%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 17 $659 −$377 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 14 $898 −$234 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 02 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 02 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 02 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 02 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 02 $4 +$8 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 02 $6 +$20 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 02 $2 +$7 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 27-May 3? May 02 $23 −$16 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 02 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 02 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 02 $12 +$18 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 02 $24 +$36 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 02 $11 +$19 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 01 $2 +$26 +1325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $126 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $157 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 15h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $208 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $329 34h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $430 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $445 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $220 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $142 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $756 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 510 history records