Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc1ba…4cf4 world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.9% -39.3% 0% 0% -39.3%
≤30d 1 -32.9% -39.3% 0% 0% -39.3%
≤90d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 67% -17.8%
all 6 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 67% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 67% -17.8%
10% -16.6% 33% -25.6%
15% -24.7% 17% -32.8%
20% -32.0% 17% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage65d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 28 $48 −$16 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 12 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $7 +$7 +97%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records