Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1b8…8be5 weather 578 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$152 (+0%) realized +$151 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%525W / 48L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$22
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$171
crypto 1% −$50
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -5.8% -14.8% 88% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 169 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 573 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 10% -9.4%
all 573 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 10% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 7% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses525 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)573 / 578
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$237
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $592 $591 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $292 $292 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $621 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1,121 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $354 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $298 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $177 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $329 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,115 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $1,114 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 9? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,108 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $634 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $259 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1,110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 10? Jun 10 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $703 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $553 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $491 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $491 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $292 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $502 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $611 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.24 · official $1,123.24 (match) · 3500 history records