Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc1b8…279d
economics · 10 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$141 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$143 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP economics specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$298
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage165d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 30 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $100 +$63 +63%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $24 −$24 -99%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 02 $100 +$2 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 02 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 53% +$32
other 47% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.2% +89.3% 100% 100% +89.3%
≤30d 1 +109.2% +89.3% 100% 100% +89.3%
≤90d 2 +60.2% +44.9% 100% 100% +45.3%
all 7 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 57% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 57% +13.6%
10% -18.1% 29% +2.7%
15% -26.0% 29% -7.2%
20% -33.2% 29% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.67 · official $297.67 (match) · 16 history records