Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1b8…19e4 other 774 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,087 (-11%) realized −$1,087 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%343W / 430L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$172
14 days−$295
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$39
crypto 31% −$986
sports 8% −$276
world 1% −$28
politics 0% −$13
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -25.6% -32.7% 41% 39% -24.5%
≤30d 390 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 46% -15.1%
≤90d 773 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 43% -21.2%
all 773 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 43% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 43% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 41% -28.7%
15% -33.8% 39% -35.6%
20% -40.3% 33% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses343 / 430
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)773 / 774
History coverage54d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 773 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$16 -23%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +41%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$7 +128%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 +$1 +121%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +91%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +84%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +48%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +132%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $13 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 24h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 24h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 46h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.12 · official $54.12 (match) · 1386 history records