Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1b3…501c other 110 markets active 18h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$301,655 (+97%) realized +$330,728 · open −$29,073
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%63W / 42L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,821per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$1,735est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$39,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$25,828
sports 33% −$14,067
crypto 4% +$10,456
politics 2% −$6,776
world 2% +$6,500
tech 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.9% -68.2% 25% 25% -84.9%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 58% -26.8%
≤90d 105 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 57% -9.7%
all 105 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 57% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 57% -9.7%
10% -13.4% 55% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -26.3%
20% -29.5% 40% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$3,950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
27.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,031 vs −$3,063 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$39,013
Realized+$330,728
Unrealized−$29,073
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses63 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,735
Open positions202
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2,821
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 202 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $12,018 $12,769 +$751 (+6%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3,316 $2,715 −$601 (-18%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3,316 $2,650 −$666 (-20%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3,316 $1,745 −$1,571 (-47%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2,175 $1,579 −$596 (-27%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $201 $1,449 +$1,249 (+622%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $1,360 $1,370 +$10 (+1%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2,342 $1,004 −$1,338 (-57%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $1,014 $942 −$72 (-7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $110 $866 +$756 (+688%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $131 $849 +$718 (+546%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $486 $817 +$331 (+68%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $102 $685 +$583 (+573%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $1,116 $587 −$529 (-47%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,316 $582 −$2,734 (-82%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 49¢ 18¢ $1,305 $475 −$830 (-64%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $418 $429 +$11 (+3%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $201 $330 +$129 (+64%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $201 $330 +$129 (+64%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3,316 $323 −$2,993 (-90%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 27¢ 5¢ $1,705 $316 −$1,388 (-81%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $109 $310 +$201 (+183%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 58¢ 46¢ $348 $276 −$72 (-21%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $121 $260 +$139 (+115%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $300 $245 −$55 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,947 +$1,194 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12,600 −$12,600 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 10 $29 +$24 +82%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $8,334 −$6,806 -82%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $14,500 +$10,456 +72%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,260 +$1,740 +138%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $2,118 +$997 +47%
Will CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar end in a draw? Jun 01 $3,950 +$1,050 +27%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3,276 +$1,924 +59%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $4,570 −$4,570 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,740 +$1,260 +72%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $6,930 +$4,070 +59%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Draw at halftime? May 21 $780 +$220 +28%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Draw at halftime? May 21 $1,984 +$940 +47%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1,600 +$2,400 +150%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 19 $3,600 +$2,400 +67%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $3,500 +$3,500 +100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $3,969 −$3,969 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2,880 +$1,120 +39%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4,600 +$5,400 +117%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 18 $2,372 −$2,372 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $663 +$298 +45%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,640 +$1,360 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,500 +$4,500 +82%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $891 −$891 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $6,700 −$6,700 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $1,480 +$520 +35%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3,420 +$2,580 +75%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $380 +$620 +163%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 4.5 May 14 $1,560 +$440 +28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 14 $4,060 +$2,940 +72%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5,000 +$100 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $5,099 −$5,099 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $3,690 +$810 +22%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $6,560 +$1,440 +22%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $5,900 +$4,100 +70%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2,350 +$2,650 +113%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2,176 +$1,024 +47%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $1,428 +$1,972 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $817 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,130 18h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,014 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,140 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,140 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,140 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $199 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $71 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $168 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $272 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $272 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $15 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $14 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $148 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 4d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,012.54 · official $39,015.87 (match) · 3500 history records