Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc1b2…7702 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%33W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$6
crypto 15% +$2
politics 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
other 2% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 47 +0.1% -9.4% 70% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses33 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage527d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 02 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 27 $5,664 −$6 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Mar 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 06 $26 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 16 $16 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $86 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $77 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 93d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $70 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 149d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $78 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $39 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 182d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $75 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 243d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $27 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $47 243d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $44 273d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 302d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $65 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $28 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $41 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 98¢ $32 367d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.32 · official $95.32 (match) · 100 history records