Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1aa…b084 other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 19% −$6
politics 14% +$3
crypto 5% $0
culture 2% +$5
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 62 +1.1% -8.5% 47% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage460d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $32 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $6 +$5 +80%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $9 +$3 +31%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Apr 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $2 +$1 +48%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 22 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 10m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $37 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $37 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $37 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $23 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records