Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1aa…de3a weather 298 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$288 (+18%) realized +$298 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%91W / 199L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$34
14 days−$21
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$252
sports 2% −$4
other 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.0% -15.8% 45% 39% -37.7%
≤30d 155 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 26% -13.7%
≤90d 290 -10.5% -19.1% 31% 29% +5.7%
all 290 -10.5% -19.1% 31% 29% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 29% +5.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 28% -4.4%
15% -33.9% 26% -13.6%
20% -40.4% 23% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses91 / 199
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)290 / 298
History coverage69d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 29¢ 16¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 16¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-72%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +482%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$10 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 7? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 7? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 7? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $27 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$21 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 12m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 29m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $15 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY 33¢ $3 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 67¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $7 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $3 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.76 · official $15.76 · 1583 history records