Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
C1 0xc1aa…b4be sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,157 (+13%) realized +$3,200 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$728
7 days+$2,708
14 days+$4,810
30 days+$4,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$4,765
world 29% −$1,047
other 1% −$86
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.2% +24.1% 88% 88% +12.6%
≤30d 9 +39.4% +26.1% 89% 89% +20.0%
≤90d 25 +38.2% +25.0% 72% 52% +5.1%
all 25 +38.2% +25.0% 72% 52% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 52% +5.1%
10% +13.1% 44% -4.9%
15% +2.1% 40% -14.1%
20% -7.9% 28% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$278 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$3,200
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage78d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ 68¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+76%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 64¢ 48¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $3,017 +$688 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $3,137 −$170 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $203 +$156 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $25 +$16 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $101 +$38 +37%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,025 +$1,154 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,515 +$823 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $3,690 +$2,103 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $253 +$132 +52%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $25 +$44 +172%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $100 +$6 +6%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $100 +$14 +14%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $800 +$313 +39%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $10 +$90 +900%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $150 +$13 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $250 +$6 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $102 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $4,990 +$112 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $51 27m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 34¢ $51 31m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $3,017 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 85¢ $2,009 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Andre Fili 20¢ $130 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 83¢ $402 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 70¢ $504 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 76¢ $222 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 63¢ $101 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 60¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 43¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 61¢ $25 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 93¢ $139 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 67¢ $101 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $1,006 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 63¢ $1,011 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 76¢ $1,007 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 74¢ $1,008 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 55¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 55¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 52¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 45¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 5d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $3,690 14d
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) BUY Jose Ochoa 94¢ $100 42d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai BUY Arnold Allen 65¢ $253 42d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Roman Kopylov 36¢ $25 42d
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P BUY Djorden Santos 13¢ $26 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.32 · official $268.86 · 147 history records