Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1a9…e2db sports 107 markets active 10d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105,676 (+15%) realized +$105,676 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%68W / 39L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$6,712per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$3,312est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$36,295
30 days+$101,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$60,120
other 41% +$41,728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 41 +7.8% -2.5% 76% 68% +3.8%
≤90d 107 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 61% +3.4%
all 107 -0.4% -9.9% 64% 61% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 61% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -6.5%
15% -26.4% 45% -15.5%
20% -33.6% 29% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$4,096) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,290 vs −$1,381 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105,676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses68 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$3,312
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage36d
Avg bet$6,712
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $2,164 +$1,521 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $95,127 +$9,013 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $79,515 +$15,611 +20%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola Jun 05 $20,095 +$3,660 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $20,150 +$6,489 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $2,019 +$939 +46%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 03 $506 +$277 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $10,112 +$1,511 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $55,908 +$12,740 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $50,912 +$4,997 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $45,685 +$5,224 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $20,374 +$208 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $37,295 +$8,163 +22%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $20,230 +$12,186 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $20,162 −$20,000 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 31 $6,081 −$6,000 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $25,117 +$9,954 +40%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $10,120 +$6,182 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $11,702 +$3,619 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $10,093 −$10,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $16,228 +$5,530 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $32,340 +$3,840 +12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $2,035 −$1,757 -86%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Hayato Matsuoka May 26 $2,717 −$1,286 -47%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $10,129 +$7,536 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $19,893 +$7,954 +40%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $16,595 +$3,298 +20%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $14,994 +$1,602 +11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10,441 +$4,536 +43%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $6,868 +$3,589 +52%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $5,060 +$1,809 +36%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 21 $2,233 −$2,200 -98%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $710 +$632 +89%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $823 +$422 +51%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Viktoriya Tomo May 20 $182 −$27 -15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $4,096 +$1,809 +44%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Zsombor Piros May 19 $193 −$190 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $2,296 +$2,922 +127%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 17 $1,104 −$1,089 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $215 −$213 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $104 +$111 +107%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $414 −$410 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $1,900 −$1,487 -78%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica leading at halftime? May 16 $1,186 +$714 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $88 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $74 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $802 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $4,012 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 92¢ $40,099 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 92¢ $6,613 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 90¢ $43,527 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $95,127 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 82¢ $31 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $14,505 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $34,313 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $12,299 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $18,368 11d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola SELL Henrique Rocha 100¢ $23,756 12d
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Remy Bertola BUY Henrique Rocha 84¢ $20,095 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $26,639 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $20,150 13d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 14d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. SELL No 99¢ $783 14d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2,019 14d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 63¢ $506 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 40¢ $1,018 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu SELL Adam Walton 71¢ $1 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu SELL Adam Walton 71¢ $289 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu SELL Adam Walton 71¢ $428 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu SELL Adam Walton 71¢ $11 14d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu SELL Adam Walton 71¢ $29 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records