trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 | Under | 85¢ | 84¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | Yes | 97¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Up | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | Up | 8¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Up | 20¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 | Over | 37¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Up | 7¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 | Jun 14 | $8 | +$1 | +16% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 | Jun 14 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 | Jun 14 | $9 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | May 25 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 25 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19? | May 24 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 10 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | May 10 | $10 | −$6 | -58% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 | May 10 | $3 | +$1 | +36% |
| Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) | May 10 | $3 | $0 | -13% |
| Shenzhen Leopards vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin | Apr 19 | $1 | +$1 | +43% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Apr 19 | $16 | +$2 | +11% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5 | Mar 27 | $3 | +$2 | +96% |
| Kings vs. Magic | Mar 26 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Rockets vs. Timberwolves | Mar 26 | $21 | +$5 | +24% |
| Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards | Mar 25 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Magic vs. Cavaliers | Mar 25 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? | Mar 15 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Mar 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +5.5% | -4.5% | 50% | 50% | -1.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 57% | 29% | -25.9% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 63% | 37% | -13.1% |
| all | 24 | -21.8% | -29.2% | 50% | 29% | -18.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.2% | 29% | -18.5% |
| 10% | -36.0% | 17% | -26.3% |
| 15% | -42.2% | 12% | -33.4% |
| 20% | -47.8% | 4% | -40.0% |