Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc1a5…f290 other 320 markets active 3d ago coverage 372d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 371d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67,801 (+3%) realized +$47,167 · open +$20,634
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%249W / 39L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$7,204per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$344,970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,594
14 days−$2,141
30 days−$5,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$38,024
crypto 41% +$31,843
finance 15% +$9,273
tech 1% +$337
economics 1% +$33
sports 0% +$374
world 0% −$60
politics 0% +$41
culture 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -19.8% -27.4% 0% 0% -27.4%
≤30d 7 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 0% -17.1%
≤90d 43 +2.4% -7.4% 84% 16% -9.3%
all 288 +4.8% -5.2% 86% 14% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 14% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -15.6%
15% -22.5% 3% -23.8%
20% -30.1% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$5,333) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$411 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$344,970
Realized+$47,167
Unrealized+$20,634
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses249 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions32
Markets (closed)288 / 320
History coverage372d ⚠
Avg bet$7,204
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $53,866 $57,032 +$3,167 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $43,446 $48,504 +$5,059 (+12%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $39,707 $40,449 +$742 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $20,828 $21,071 +$243 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $17,904 $18,566 +$662 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $17,546 $17,640 +$95 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $15,741 $16,482 +$741 (+5%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $13,357 $16,012 +$2,655 (+20%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $13,915 $15,863 +$1,948 (+14%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $14,572 $15,469 +$898 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $12,202 $14,077 +$1,875 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $13,495 $14,038 +$544 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $10,822 $11,055 +$233 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $10,549 $10,832 +$283 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $5,170 $5,647 +$477 (+9%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $5,136 $5,610 +$474 (+9%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,001 $4,069 +$68 (+2%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $3,084 $3,244 +$159 (+5%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,954 $2,118 +$163 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,906 $2,059 +$154 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,329 $1,367 +$38 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,078 $1,142 +$64 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 80¢ $1,163 $1,000 −$163 (-14%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 94¢ 96¢ $473 $482 +$9 (+2%)
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $272 $288 +$15 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $8,057 −$1,594 -20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 11 $6,694 −$752 -11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 10 $5,288 +$206 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 06 $7,794 +$629 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $37,196 −$4,095 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,525 +$2 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 19 $5,277 +$227 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $173 +$147 +86%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 16 $19,955 +$581 +3%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5,333 +$98 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 14 $5,271 +$119 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $1,600 +$41 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $879 +$120 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 01 $594 −$144 -24%
Will Tesla dip to $285 in April? May 01 $988 +$123 +12%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 01 $1,100 +$95 +9%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in April? May 01 $2,089 +$133 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 30 $36,947 +$261 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 28 $784 +$30 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 28 $4,253 +$53 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $1,577 −$379 -24%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? Apr 17 $2,184 +$18 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? Apr 16 $1,469 +$20 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Apr 14 $6,411 +$310 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 14 $876 +$11 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Apr 14 $1,059 +$42 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 14 $11,737 +$217 +2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? Apr 08 $2,921 +$2 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $1,111 +$33 +3%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $2B in 2026? Apr 04 $472 +$83 +18%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March? Apr 01 $100 +$11 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $125 +$15 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $580 +$14 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,101 +$29 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $6,342 +$139 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $2,418 +$182 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 01 $3,800 +$86 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1,400 −$851 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 30 $84,573 +$4,105 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $14,300 +$276 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 20 $32,286 +$1,262 +4%
Will Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $149 +$73 +49%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Mar 15 $1,825 +$54 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 11 $1,013 −$13 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 09 $4,212 +$13 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $1,074 +$129 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $5,433 −$19 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 96¢ $3,679 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 95¢ $146 3d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $63 4d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 4d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $46 4d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $339 4d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $280 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $59 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $81 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $426 5d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $63 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $1,489 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 90¢ $464 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 90¢ $521 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 89¢ $15 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $3,279 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $237 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $1 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $1,552 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $141 6d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 85¢ $79 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $287 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $19,712 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $19,588 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1,394 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $5,887 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $4,743 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344,970.48 · official $344,963.54 (match) · 3500 history records