Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc1a4…eb99 other 125 markets active 4h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 38% −$16
sports 8% +$12
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 +3.4% -6.4% 4% 4% -9.6%
all 125 +1.2% -8.4% 6% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$1 · ×14.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage114d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $242 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $381 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $195 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $190 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $173 −$2 -1%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $420 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $430 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $190 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 4h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 20h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 33h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 35h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $173 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $173 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records