Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1a0…9aa9 sports 624 markets active 10h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$402 (-5%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%305W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day99.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$473
14 days+$376
30 days−$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$252
other 13% −$15
sports 11% −$121
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -1.6% -10.9% 40% 35% +2.8%
≤30d 619 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 42% -13.1%
≤90d 624 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 42% -13.8%
all 624 -8.3% -17.0% 49% 42% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 42% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 36% -22.1%
15% -32.2% 29% -29.6%
20% -38.9% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses305 / 319
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)624 / 624
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day99.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 624 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$19 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$32 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$23 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$21 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$21 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$29 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$11 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$18 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$38 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$15 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$10 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$20 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records