Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc19d…aea3 sports 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$696 (-22%) realized −$709 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%314W / 762L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,398
7 days−$1,398
14 days−$1,398
30 days−$1,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$270
other 20% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 292 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 292 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1076 -38.6% -44.4% 29% 26% -43.9%
all 1076 -38.6% -44.4% 29% 26% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.4% 26% -43.9%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 22% -49.3%
15% -54.6% 17% -54.2%
20% -59.1% 13% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses314 / 762
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1076 / 738
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1076 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 60¢ 70¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+18%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Le Yi Liu 42¢ 42¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Hiromi Abe 72¢ 82¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Martha Matoula 62¢ 64¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Game Master 38¢ 29¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Coritiba FBC vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Bruins vs. Sabres Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cobolli vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -203%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $6 −$12 -201%
Gwangju: Liam Broady vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Odense BK vs. Randers FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amiens SC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $3 −$6 -200%
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Charles Broom Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
América de Cali vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Olimpia vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
CF Monterrey vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Carrarese Calcio vs. Delfino Pescara 1936: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-16? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Casa Pia AC vs. CD Santa Clara end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $18 −$36 -202%
Kashima Antlers vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AS Nancy-Lorraine win on 2026-04-17? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Will FC Slovan Liberec vs. FK Mladá Boleslav end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Le Mans FC vs. Clermont Foot 63: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 42¢ $27 11m
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 42¢ $23 15m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 38¢ $11 25m
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Hiromi Abe 72¢ $30 39m
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Martha Matoula 62¢ $11 43m
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Martha Matoula 62¢ $11 43m
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 60¢ $30 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 60¢ $30 1h
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 52d
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1 52d
CF América vs. Atlas FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 52d
Vitória SC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 52d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 62¢ $1 52d
Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 71¢ $1 52d
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 67¢ $1 52d
Tigres de la UANL vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 52d
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 52d
CF América vs. Atlas FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 52d
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 83¢ $1 52d
Will FC Twente '65 vs. NEC end in a draw? BUY No 12¢ $10 52d
CA Bucaramanga vs. Jaguares de Córdoba FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 52d
Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 71¢ $1 52d
Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy BUY Daniel Galan 29¢ $10 52d
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 71¢ $1 52d
Vitória SC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 52d
NAC Breda vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 52d
AS Saint-Étienne vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 52d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 63¢ $10 52d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 64¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.50 · official $204.50 (match) · 3500 history records