Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc19d…95a4 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$9 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4
other 9% −$11
world 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.4% -39.7% 25% 25% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -33.4% -39.7% 25% 25% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -33.4% -39.7% 25% 25% -10.5%
all 4 -33.4% -39.7% 25% 25% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 25% -10.5%
10% -45.5% 25% -19.0%
15% -50.8% 25% -26.8%
20% -55.6% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$22 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 44¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 32¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+95%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 +$65 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -62%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 23h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.05 · official $218.05 (match) · 15 history records