Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc195…bae0 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
sports 23% −$17
politics 11% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage129d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $104 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $307 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $358 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $325 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $136 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $315 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $315 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $866 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $495 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $26 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $26 4h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 8h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 12h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 21h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 27h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 28h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $51 30h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 31h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 36h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 37h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 41h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 43h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 44h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 45h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1332 history records