Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc194…e2e3 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$854 (-65%) realized −$855 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$851
sports 35% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 50% -11.3%
all 5 -60.1% -63.9% 20% 20% -71.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.9% 20% -71.7%
10% -67.3% 0% -74.4%
15% -70.5% 0% -76.9%
20% -73.4% 0% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$224 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$855
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage637d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B eternal premium 69¢ 70¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 28 $217 −$44 -20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 27 $182 +$36 +20%
Will Trump say "mentally impaired" during Wisconsin speech October 1? Oct 01 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump say "disabled" during Wisconsin speech October 1? Oct 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Kamala Harris go on SNL? Sep 29 $722 −$722 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.30 · official $61.30 (match) · 20 history records