Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc18f…73eb other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-5%) realized −$98 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$2,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$129
sports 3% −$3
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.0% -52.1% 0% 0% -43.4%
≤30d 7 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -43.3%
≤90d 7 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -43.3%
all 7 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 0% -43.3%
10% -52.5% 0% -48.7%
15% -57.1% 0% -53.6%
20% -61.3% 0% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$13 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2,585
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)7 / 22
History coverage26d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,631 $1,630 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $271 +$21 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $104 $102 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $98 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $82 $76 −$5 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $67 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $112 $56 −$56 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$9 -52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,585.12 · official $2,585.12 (match) · 506 history records