Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc18e…44e3 weather 787 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$931 (-3%) realized −$936 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%236W / 543L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$342
world 18% +$67
politics 16% −$196
economics 15% −$8
sports 9% −$10
tech 5% −$43
weather 4% −$230
finance 4% −$202
culture 1% −$42
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 25% -8.4%
≤30d 75 -4.3% -13.4% 21% 13% -16.7%
≤90d 485 -10.0% -18.6% 28% 21% -15.0%
all 779 -11.3% -19.7% 30% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 22% -12.3%
10% -27.4% 17% -20.7%
15% -34.4% 14% -28.3%
20% -40.9% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$936
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses236 / 543
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)779 / 787
History coverage223d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $16 $21 +$4 (+26%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 15 $6 −$3 -52%
GMGN FDV above $1B one day after launch Jun 15 $0 $0 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 −$3 -14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -30%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $20 −$3 -13%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 13 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 13 $47 −$2 -4%
GMGN FDV above $600M one day after launch Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -3%
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 ML Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +114%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$3 -11%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 09 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 06 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by November 30, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -65%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 05 $5 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? May 31 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? May 31 $12 −$2 -19%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? May 30 $28 +$2 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on May 30 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 30 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? May 30 $5 −$4 -82%
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $15 −$1 -5%
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market cl May 29 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Valantis launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 −$2 -16%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 28 $10 −$2 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $185 −$18 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 27 $1 +$2 +141%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con SELL No 6¢ $3 36m
GMGN FDV above $1B one day after launch SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
GMGN FDV above $1B one day after launch BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con BUY No 13¢ $6 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $5 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 14h
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 48¢ $19 16h
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $11 16h
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $11 16h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 22h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 28¢ $15 22h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $5 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 26h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 35h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 35h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL No 40¢ $19 2d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 42¢ $21 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 42¢ $21 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 44¢ $22 2d
GMGN FDV above $600M one day after launch SELL No 86¢ $17 2d
GMGN FDV above $600M one day after launch BUY No 87¢ $17 2d
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 10¢ $2 2d
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY No 10¢ $2 2d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $12 2d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $13 2d
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 ML SELL No 75¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.66 · official $113.66 (match) · 2988 history records