Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc18e…38af crypto 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,580 (+4%) realized +$2,580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%186W / 204L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,503
7 days+$3,470
14 days+$3,470
30 days+$3,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$495
other 4% +$792
sports 4% +$3,018
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +114.2% +93.8% 65% 59% +7.2%
≤30d 17 +114.2% +93.8% 65% 59% +7.2%
≤90d 376 -0.0% -9.6% 47% 37% -8.0%
all 390 +0.2% -9.3% 48% 36% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 36% -7.9%
10% -18.0% 31% -16.7%
15% -25.9% 23% -24.8%
20% -33.2% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$56 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses186 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)390 / 391
History coverage102d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 390 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,836 −$383 -21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,626 +$423 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,524 +$747 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $183 +$50 +28%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zeal Jun 16 $30 +$2,607 +8730%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $54 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$25 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 01 $10 −$4 -43%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 01 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? Apr 30 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1? Apr 29 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 28 $24 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29? Apr 28 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 15 $231 −$196 -85%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 15 $872 −$405 -46%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $500 +$124 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 14 $700 −$154 -22%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $400 −$2 -0%
Santa Cruz: Santiago De La Fuente vs Nicolas Villalon Apr 14 $39 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $200 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $200 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$3 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $25 −$18 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 14 $400 +$76 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 14 $790 −$131 -17%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $741 +$58 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 13 $547 +$199 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 13 $535 +$28 +5%
Will Solana reach $85 on April 13? Apr 13 $488 +$67 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $201 +$41 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $242 +$100 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 13 $24 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $192 +$51 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $88 +$23 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 13 $126 −$34 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 13 $108 +$22 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $432 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $929 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $92 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $305 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $305 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $306 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $306 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $307 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $307 59m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $320 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $59 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $83 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $500 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $100 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $100 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $100 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $181 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $30 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $11 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $26 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $0 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $252 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $29 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $30 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $1 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $51 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $675 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 83¢ $58 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $2,220 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 52¢ $441 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2308 history records