Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc18b…9491
crypto · 207 markets active 6d ago
0.0score
−$1,407 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,895 · open +$1,488
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$11,339
Realized−$2,895
Unrealized+$1,488
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses45 / 157
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)202 / 207
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 5 History 202 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $7,000 $9,877 +$2,877 (+41%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $536 −$464 (-46%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $500 −$500 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $850 $425 −$425 (-50%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $251 $0 −$251 (-100%)
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 03 $13 −$13 -95%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $21 +$16 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 01 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 01 $21 +$14 +67%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $10 +$20 +189%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $1 $0 +7%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $1 $0 +34%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 +$6 +594%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-21? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Mallorca leading at halftime? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletic Club vs. CA Osasuna: Draw at halftime? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Alverca vs. FC Arouca end in a draw? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$2,607
economics 35% −$3,111
crypto 8% −$580
world 2% −$259
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% −$24
tech 0% −$33
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $892 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1,049 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1,050 6d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 36d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 39d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 40d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 41d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $4 41d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $35 41d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $10 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $17 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 146 -63.7% -67.1% 18% 17% -91.8%
all 202 -44.8% -50.0% 22% 22% -81.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.0% 22% -81.7%
10% -54.8% 21% -83.5%
15% -59.2% 19% -85.1%
20% -63.2% 14% -86.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,338.52 · official $11,338.52 (match) · 469 history records