Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc18a…7c09 other 572 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,292 (+16%) realized +$2,245 · open +$6,047
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%33W / 522L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$481est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$6,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$5,930
sports 41% +$6,436
crypto 2% +$152
world 1% +$802
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 472 -79.1% -81.1% 1% 1% -36.9%
≤90d 555 -59.9% -63.7% 6% 5% +0.3%
all 555 -59.9% -63.7% 6% 5% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.7% 5% +0.3%
10% -67.2% 5% -9.3%
15% -70.3% 5% -18.1%
20% -73.2% 5% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,369 vs −$73 · ×18.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$6,354
Realized+$2,245
Unrealized+$6,047
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses33 / 522
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$481
Open positions17
Markets (closed)555 / 572
History coverage85d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $15 $746 +$731 (+4750%)
Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists Yes 46¢ $15 $700 +$685 (+4550%)
Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $12 $592 +$580 (+4740%)
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists Yes 49¢ $12 $588 +$576 (+4800%)
Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists Yes 47¢ $12 $584 +$572 (+4600%)
Hamza Abdelkarim: 4+ goals + assists Yes 49¢ $12 $579 +$567 (+4795%)
Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists Yes 48¢ $12 $575 +$563 (+4650%)
Zizo: 3+ goals Yes 24¢ $18 $421 +$404 (+2305%)
Ibrahim Adel: 4+ goals + assists Yes 34¢ $12 $412 +$400 (+3344%)
Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists Yes 33¢ $12 $394 +$382 (+3210%)
Zizo: 4+ goals + assists Yes 19¢ $16 $292 +$277 (+1775%)
Trezeguet: 3+ goals Yes 12¢ $20 $234 +$214 (+1085%)
Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals Yes $24 $60 +$37 (+154%)
Ibrahim Adel: 3+ goals Yes $20 $52 +$32 (+160%)
Hamza Abdelkarim: 3+ goals Yes $19 $49 +$30 (+160%)
Emam Ashour: 3+ goals Yes $19 $48 +$29 (+154%)
Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals Yes $58 $28 −$30 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dani Olmo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Borja Iglesias: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Borja Iglesias: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Álex Grimaldo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Víctor Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Nico Williams: 3+ goals Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Gavi Paez: 3+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Pedro Vite: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Gonzalo Plata: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Nilson Angulo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Anthony Valencia: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Pedro Vite: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Alan Minda: 3+ goals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Anthony Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
John Yeboah: 3+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Gonzalo Plata: 3+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Nilson Angulo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Kendry Páez: 3+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Nilson Angulo: 2+ goals Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Kendry Páez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
John Yeboah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Alan Minda: 3+ goals + assists Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Alan Minda: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Memphis Depay: 3+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Tijjani Reijnders: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trezeguet: 3+ goals + assists BUY Yes $15 2h
Zizo: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 2h
Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $15 2h
Omar Marmoush: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Haissem Hassan: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Mostafa Zico: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Mohamed Salah: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Ibrahim Adel: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Hamza Abdelkarim: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Emam Ashour: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $12 2h
Omar Marmoush: 3+ goals BUY Yes $24 2h
Hamza Abdelkarim: 3+ goals BUY Yes $19 2h
Emam Ashour: 3+ goals BUY Yes $19 2h
Zizo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $18 2h
Trezeguet: 3+ goals BUY Yes $20 2h
Mohamed Salah: 3+ goals BUY Yes $58 2h
Ibrahim Adel: 3+ goals BUY Yes $20 2h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $1 14h
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $1 14h
Víctor Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $1 14h
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $1 14h
Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 17h
Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 17h
Víctor Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 18h
Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 18h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 18h
Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $15 18h
Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $15 18h
Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $16 18h
Álex Grimaldo: 4+ goals + assists BUY Yes $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,353.57 · official $6,353.87 (match) · 1321 history records