Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc187…efaa sports 1173 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$520 (+7%) realized +$520 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%597W / 573L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$182
14 days−$118
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$63
other 22% −$68
weather 8% −$277
crypto 4% −$112
world 1% +$1
economics 0% −$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 34% -26.9%
≤30d 329 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 32% -17.4%
≤90d 1170 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 42% -14.6%
all 1170 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 42% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 42% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 39% -22.8%
15% -30.5% 34% -30.2%
20% -37.4% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses597 / 573
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1170 / 1173
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 57¢ 56¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $29 −$4 -15%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $41 +$46 +113%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 −$5 -23%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $14 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $7 +$4 +56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $3 +$2 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $7 +$5 +69%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$32 +159%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $15 +$14 +92%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $11 +$8 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$24 +122%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $3 +$2 +52%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 44¢ $21 51m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 57¢ $3 53m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 57¢ $3 55m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 57¢ $2 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 57¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY No 96¢ $8 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 51¢ $44 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $86 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $29 5h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $31 5h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 5h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $4 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $50 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 39¢ $48 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 29h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY No 97¢ $2 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 31h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $19 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.42 · official $70.42 (match) · 3500 history records