Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc187…775f sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,617 (-6%) realized −$1,663 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%30W / 16L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$335est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$678
14 days−$2,009
30 days−$1,696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$612
other 10% −$1,086
crypto 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.7% -20.2% 57% 57% -54.2%
≤30d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 46% -15.2%
≤90d 43 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 42% -15.4%
all 46 -3.9% -13.0% 65% 39% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 39% -15.4%
10% -21.4% 26% -23.5%
15% -29.0% 20% -30.9%
20% -35.9% 15% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$696) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$434 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$1,663
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses30 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$335
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage188d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Juan Bautista Torres 58¢ 72¢ $181 $227 +$46 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $111 +$23 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 +$49 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $122 +$39 +32%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $127 −$5 -4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $104 +$23 +22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $619 −$607 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $531 −$523 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $368 −$363 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $203 +$164 +81%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $497 −$295 -59%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2,538 −$2,520 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2,432 +$91 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,776 −$342 -19%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1,691 +$1,380 +82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1,639 −$248 -15%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,219 +$418 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $898 +$819 +91%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,061 −$1,058 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $530 +$32 +6%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $890 +$140 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $399 −$6 -2%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,224 +$61 +5%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 09 $567 +$158 +28%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 09 $696 +$521 +75%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Munar vs Damm Jun 09 $392 −$387 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $551 +$356 +65%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $569 +$76 +13%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 09 $428 +$235 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $450 −$118 -26%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $334 +$28 +8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $223 +$100 +45%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $351 +$46 +13%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $643 +$33 +5%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $253 +$144 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $412 +$86 +21%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $557 −$144 -26%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $508 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 08 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $136 −$77 -57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 08 $119 +$9 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $215 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 17 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 17 $36 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 55¢ $58 33m
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 59¢ $125 36m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 94¢ $133 48m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 77¢ $111 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $153 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $53 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb SELL Paul Jubb 99¢ $153 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Paul Jubb 75¢ $122 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Austria 81¢ $122 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $127 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch SELL Chris Rodesch 99¢ $127 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 78¢ $4 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 81¢ $101 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Mimi Xu 36¢ $619 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $201 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $531 7d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Costa Rica 55¢ $368 11d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $368 11d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 11d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $202 11d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $497 11d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians $19 12d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 50¢ $6 12d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $2,532 12d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Panna Udvardy 66¢ $2,523 12d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 68¢ $495 12d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 55¢ $9 12d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 63¢ $437 12d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 59¢ $993 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.61 · official $226.61 (match) · 123 history records