Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc183…061b sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate62%41W / 25L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$16
sports 19% +$52
crypto 1% −$18
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 39 -18.2% -26.0% 77% 0% -9.1%
all 66 -21.6% -29.1% 62% 15% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 15% -8.5%
10% -35.8% 12% -17.3%
15% -42.0% 12% -25.3%
20% -47.7% 11% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$754
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)66 / 70
History coverage714d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 94¢ 95¢ $567 $568 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? No 95¢ 95¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Sweden 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: United States (-4.5) Türkiye 99¢ 99¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Amad Diallo: 3+ goals Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists Jun 25 $576 +$24 +4%
Ibrahim Sangaré: 2+ goals Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Yan Diomandé: 3+ goals Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Gjorcheska vs Bronzetti Jun 25 $283 +$17 +6%
Spread: Mexico (-3.5) Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Oh Hyeongyu: 3+ goals Jun 25 $788 +$12 +2%
Chemsdine Talbi: 5+ shots Jun 25 $882 +$18 +2%
Promise David: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals Jun 24 $763 +$37 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Nardi vs Virtanen Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Set 2 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Ruse Jun 24 $47 +$3 +5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals Jun 24 $23 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 $0 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Hsu vs Sakellaridis Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Dias vs Jacquet Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau Jun 22 $19 +$1 +7%
Set 2 Winner: Boyer vs Olivieri Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City vs. Wydad AC end in a draw? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO1) Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3AM ET Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 14 $10 +$12 +117%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 04 $12 +$14 +117%
Will the Alternative 2020 win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname elec Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? May 22 $1 +$3 +223%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $47 7m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 10m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 11m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $47 11m
Spread: United States (-4.5) BUY Türkiye 99¢ $50 13m
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $36 17m
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY No 95¢ $50 18m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Sweden 98¢ $50 1h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 95¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Ibrahim Sangaré: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Yan Diomandé: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $50 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $753.90 · official $753.90 (match) · 218 history records