Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc182…1339 sports 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$961 (+4%) realized +$961 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%161W / 194L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$338est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$136
14 days−$873
30 days+$1,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$807
weather 0% −$43
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.2% -30.6% 38% 31% -13.2%
≤30d 112 +2.2% -7.5% 46% 44% +1.2%
≤90d 307 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 45% -3.1%
all 355 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 44% -6.2%
10% -17.7% 43% -15.2%
15% -25.6% 41% -23.4%
20% -32.9% 38% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$58 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$961
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses161 / 194
Est. fees paid−$338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage111d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions (171 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $203 +$197 +97%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $201 +$19 +10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $51 +$60 +118%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $279 −$275 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $208 −$5 -2%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $102 −$37 -36%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $152 +$106 +70%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $200 +$14 +7%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $159 +$153 +96%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $38 −$37 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $234 −$230 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $71 −$54 -76%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $51 +$74 +145%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $272 +$233 +86%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $194 +$319 +165%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $203 +$231 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $234 −$230 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $71 +$44 +62%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$9 +29%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $254 +$246 +97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$98 +64%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$60 -84%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $68 +$65 +95%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $17 +$60 +344%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 12 $41 +$67 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$67 -66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $400 22m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 50¢ $203 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $220 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 91¢ $201 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $111 20h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 45¢ $51 22h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $152 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $127 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $444 43h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 7¢ $5 44h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $203 44h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 48¢ $51 45h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 58¢ $203 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $65 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $52 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 69¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 67¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $258 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $215 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 58¢ $152 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 93¢ $200 2d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $313 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 50¢ $58 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 50¢ $102 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $38 3d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 42¢ $31 3d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 42¢ $203 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL REKONIX 9¢ $17 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 35¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records