Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc181…6e97 crypto 1120 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55,513 (-9%) realized −$55,790 · open +$277
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%647W / 472L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$7,214est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,147
7 days−$4,381
14 days−$10,341
30 days−$9,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$64,850
other 8% +$6,105
crypto 2% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -22.7%
≤30d 136 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 44% -14.6%
≤90d 1119 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 46% -17.2%
all 1119 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 46% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 46% -17.2%
10% -23.3% 37% -25.2%
15% ← realistic here -30.7% 29% -32.4%
20% -37.5% 22% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$551 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,179
Realized−$55,790
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses647 / 472
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$7,214
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1119 / 1120
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$524
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ 76¢ $902 $1,179 +$277 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $710 +$688 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 −$121 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $570 +$764 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $674 −$664 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $299 −$194 -65%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $570 −$271 -48%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $571 −$562 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $721 −$709 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $980 −$971 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,564 −$1,544 -99%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $647 +$417 +64%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $992 −$980 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $594 +$552 +93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $494 −$486 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $892 +$1,016 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $621 +$766 +123%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $546 +$573 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $596 +$454 +76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $496 −$490 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $473 +$623 +132%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $569 +$404 +71%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $538 +$522 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $809 −$800 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $808 −$39 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $578 +$808 +140%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $911 −$900 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $938 +$552 +59%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $991 −$53 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $720 −$712 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $988 +$723 +73%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $822 −$812 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1,289 +$521 +40%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $680 +$609 +90%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $762 −$750 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 10 $795 −$33 -4%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $626 −$617 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $1,985 −$1,359 -68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $1,008 −$994 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $928 +$773 +83%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $984 +$1,316 +134%
Humbert vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $1,073 +$840 +78%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $649 +$474 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $680 −$30 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $677 −$663 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 58¢ $913 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,399 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $710 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $122 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $570 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $674 15h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 17¢ $105 15h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 47¢ $299 17h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 33¢ $299 18h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $570 22h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 48¢ $571 22h
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bublik 47¢ $721 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $980 36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1,019 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,564 42h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $1,064 45h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $992 45h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 60¢ $647 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,146 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $494 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $508 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $306 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $594 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $892 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,387 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $621 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $1,120 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $546 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $508 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $496 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.64 · official $1,178.64 (match) · 3500 history records